Manchester United looks to start moving up the table as they visit Aston Villa. It is time to continue our Premier League odds series with an Aston Villa-Manchester United prediction and pick.
Aston Villa comes in off an amazing performance on Wednesday. They were able to hold Bayern Munich without a goal, taking a 1-0 victory in Champions League play. they have been solid in Premier League play as well. Aston Villa is coming off a 2-2 draw with Ipswich Town, but has four wins, a loss, and a draw this year, placing them fifth on the table currently. The lone loss was a 2-0 loss to Arsenal.
Meanwhile, Manchester United has struggled. They are coming off a 3-0 loss to Tottenham, and have one just once in their last five fixtures in the Premier League. Furthermore, they have failed to score a goal in three of their last four Premier League matches. They did score three goals in their Europa League match with FC Porto, though.
Here are the Premier League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Premier League Odds: Aston Villa-Manchester United Odds
Aston Villa: +115
Manchester United: +210
Draw: +270
Over 2.5 goals: -205
Under 2.5 goals: +150
How to Watch Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
Time: 9:00 AM ET/ 6:00 AM PT
TV: USA Network
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
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Why Aston Villa Will Win
Aston Villa has been scoring great this year. They have scored a goal in five of their six matches in the Premier League this year. They are averaging two goals per match this year, while they have been starting strong. Aston Villa has scored five goals in the first half this year, scoring in the first half in four of six fixtures. Villa has been led this year by Ollie Watkins. Watkins comes into the game with four goals and two assists on the year. He has an expected goal total of 3.5, but just a .7 expected assist total. This gives him nearly two points over his expected total on the year.
Also playing well is Jhon Duran. Duran has scored four times this year, all four coming in off the bench. He has played in all six games but has not made a start, and playing just 162 total minutes in the six games. Still, he has his four goals on an expected total of just 2.1. Further, Morgan Rogers has set up the attack well. He has scored once this year, while also having two assists. This gives him three points on an expected 2.9.
Aston Villa would like to be stronger defensively though. They have conceded nine goals in their six fixtures, good for 1.5 goals against per game. They do have one clean sheet on the year. The issue has been the middle portions of each half. Three of the nine goals have come in the middle 15 minutes of the first half, and three of the nine have come in the middle 15 of the second half. Goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez has stopped 12 of 21 shots this year, which gives him nine goals against on an expected total of just 7.3.
Why Manchester United Will Win
Manchester United is struggling to score this year. They have scored just five goals in six Premier League fixtures this year. Further, three of the goals came in one game, a 3-0 win over Southampton. Manchester United will be looking for Joshua Zirkzee to step up. He has scored once this year, but with six shots on target this year, he has an expected goal total of 2.4, the highest on the team. Further, Bruno Fernandes has struggled this year as well. He has 17 shots on the year, but just three have hit the Target. This gives him an expected total of 1.9 goals, but he has not scored and has just one assist.
Alejandro Garnacho has also struggled. He has 11 shots on the year with three on target. This gives him an expected total of 2.3 goals but he has scored just once. Overall, Manchester United has 79 shots in six games, with 29 hitting the target. This has them with an expected goal total as a team fo 10.4 goals, but they have scored just five.
One defense, Manchester United has also struggled. They have allowed eight goals this year, good for 1.33 per game. Goalkeeper Andre Onana has been solid though. He has allowed just eight goals on an expected total of 10.8.
Final Aston Villa-Manchester United Prediction & Pick
The odds for this Aston Villa-Manchester United fixture favor Aston Villa slightly. That is because they have been converting more chances. Aston Villa has scored 12 times on an expected total of just 9.3. That gives them 2.7 more goals than expected. Meanwhile, Manchester United has scored 5.4 goals less than expected. At some point, that will turn around for Manchester United. It may not be this game, but they should still score. Take the over in this one.
Final Aston Villa-Manchester United Prediction & Pick: Over 2.5 (-205)
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