Morning.

Let’s start with the news from yesterday that the wheels appear to have started turning regarding Mikel Merino. He’s been linked strongly for a few weeks now, but yesterday reports emerged of talks between the clubs, an actual bid (which was rejected), and more talks because of that.

We’ve heard all the details before, about how the player wants to come, the personal terms are agreed etc etc, and now it’s just about the agreement between Real Sociedad and Arsenal. I’m guessing the relationship between the two clubs is pretty decent, primarily because of the Mikel Arteta connection (I’m sure as ruthless as he is, he wouldn’t want to annoy his former and home-town club), and we also did the Kieran Tierney deal with them last summer too.

One detail which was reported, and which sparked a lot of discussion, was the fact that Merino’s arrival would ‘Likely need an exit’ – as per David Ornstein’s update on social media . This ‘one in, one out’ activity is something James has mentioned more than once on the Arsecast Extra, and it has people wondering why. With Champions League money in the bank from last season, and guaranteed some from this season’s competition too, why can’t Arsenal just do the deal?

James goes into it a bit here, suggesting that this is a strategy/philosophy about this summer’s business, rather than a requirement. It’s not a case we’re so broke we have to sell to buy, it’s about trying to balance out this summer more effectively than some of the ones that have come before.

The reality is Arsenal have spent a lot in the last few years, and not brought in a great deal from sales. My back of a matchbook figures below demonstrate:

2020

Spending: €80m (Partey, Gabriel, Pablo Mari)
Income: €20m (Martinez)

2021

Spending: €160m (Odegaard, White, Tomiyasu, Ramsdale, Tavares, Lokonga)
Income: €30m (Willock)

2022

Spending: €130m (Jesus, Zinchenko, Vieira, Turner, Marquinhos)
Income: €22m (Leno, Torreira, Guendouzi, Mavropanos)

2023

Spending: €230m (Rice, Havertz, Timber)
Income: €68m (Balogun, Turner, Xhaka, Trusty, Pablo Mari)

Obviously there are going to be loan fees, youth players who go for a relatively small amount, and other bits and bobs that add up a little bit, but we’ve been spending far more than we’ve brought in for four years now. Let’s not forget we also committed to spending €30m on David Raya last summer which is part of this summer’s spending, on top of the arrival of Riccardo Calafiori.

So, this summer the outlay has been €75m or thereabouts, while the main sale is the €30m for Emile Smith Rowe, plus the departures of young players like Mika Biereth, Brooke Norton-Cuffy, and loan fees for the likes of Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nuno Tavares (a deal which includes an obligation should he fulfill certain criteria during the season). Even so, that means this summer is still running at a loss, and you don’t need me to do the overall figures to show that the spending over the last four years far outweighs the income.

So, if there’s a greater focus on balancing things out, particularly in this PSR world we live in now, it’s understandable to me. Whether that’s a KSE edict, or something the club have decided on themselves to try and operate in a more sustainable way, I don’t know, but if you look at it objectively, it makes sense. It’s why I’ve said plenty of times before that being better at selling is so important, because it obviously has a direct correlation to what you can spend.

With that in mind though, and if that policy/strategy is in place, if we’re moving on Merino, does it then suggest we’re expecting some outward movement too. Is it Eddie to Bournemouth, for example? I don’t know, but when Smith Rowe was sold, Calafiori arrived. There are others in squad who could potentially go to make room for the Merino move. Aaron Ramsdale’s future is up in the air; Reiss Nelson’s agent should be banging down doors to find him a club where he might actually play some substantial minutes; and the fact we’ve signed a left-footed centre-half/left-back might well mean Jakub Kiwior’s Arsenal future has a question mark over it.

Now it’s down to Edu and his team to generate the sales and generate the cash which will allow us to bring in that midfielder, and that attacking player. What I would just say though is that even if we’re heading towards the end of the window and sales haven’t gone as well as we’d like, I hope the club will still augment the squad with that final third player who could make a big difference to our chances of success this season. As I said, I fully understand the need to try and balance the books, but there are sporting strategies that we have to prioritise if we want the success we all crave. I’m sure that’s something the manager will be pushing for in all the discussions they have at the top level too.

Right, I’m gonna leave it there for now. We’ll have an Arsecast for you, perhaps a bit later on, but definitely in the morning as we look ahead to the new season – and from tomorrow it’s all eyes on Saturday and Wolves.

Have a good one.

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